Maui Housing Statistics

Housing Unaffordability - At a Glance

Comparing median home sale price to median household income provides a measure of how unaffordable housing is. In 2022, the year before the Maui fires, single family home and condo prices were at all time highs. West Maui was the worst, with single family homes costing 18 times what a typical West Maui household earned in a year. Homes have only gotten more expensive since then.

Looking at the data for 1984 (the first year with data), 2002, then 2022, we see that single family homes have become twice as unaffordable every 20 years. In contrast, condos became twice as unaffordable in just the last 20 years, coinciding with the rise in short-term rental platforms like VRBO and Airbnb.

Nationwide in 2022, home prices were 5-6 times more expensive than household incomes - a record high - up from 4 times in 2002. In that context, all single family homes on Maui are extremely unaffordable.

Focusing on 3 years shows how unaffordable homes have become. In 1984, the first year with data, homes cost 3-4x more than typical household incomes. 38 years later in 2022 (the year before the Maui fires), homes had became 8-18x more expensive than household incomes.

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Focusing on 3 years shows that condos have become more unaffordable for typical households since 2002, but remain much more affordable than single family homes. The spike in unaffordability in West Maui and South Maui is related to the profitability of short-term rentals.

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Over the past 40 years, affordable homes have made up a smaller and smaller percentage of all single single family sales each year. In 1984, most homes were affordable for the typical household. 38 years later in 2022 (the year before the Maui fires), fewer than 10% of all homes sold in Maui County were affordable.

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From 1984 to 2002, most condos were affordable for the typical Maui County household. But since 2002, many fewer condos sold in West Maui and South Maui especially have been affordable. Nonetheless, condos remain much more affordable than single family homes in all regions.

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This shows the same data as the earlier chart, but in terms of the total number of affordable homes sold each year (rather than as a percentage of all sales). The total number of affordable homes sold had dropped to vanishly small amounts by 2022 - just 9 homes in West Maui and 4 homes in South Maui.

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Affordable condo sales have dropped significantly in the 20 years between 2002 and 2022. But, even in 2002, condos remain Maui's largest source of affordable housing sold each year.

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Housing Unaffordability - All Years

These charts also show the ratio of median home sale price to median household income, but for all years from 1984-2023 and all regions of Maui County. We can see that West Maui and South Maui have historically had the most unaffordable single family homes. Central Maui and Molokai have historically been the most affordable for both single family homes and condos.

Condos in West Maui and South Maui, about half of which can operate as transient vacation rentals, show a sharp increase in unaffordability between 2000-2010, precisely when vacation rental platforms like VRBO and Airbnb took off. Nonetheless, condos historically and today remain significantly more affordable than single family homes.

Maui's single family homes have become extremely unaffordable for working families. Homes now sell for 9-22 times what the typical household earns in a year.

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Maui's condos are also becoming less affordable. But even in West Maui and South Maui, where many condos sell for more because they can be used as short-term rentals, condos are significantly more attainable for typical households.

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As a percentage of all home sales, affordably-priced homes have made up an every shrinking amount of the market each year. Affordable home sales dropped dramatically in the early 2000s and have never recovered.

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Condos in Central Maui have been the most affordable homes on Maui since at least 1984, despite having become less affordable over the past few years. Condos in West Maui and South Maui were mostly affordable prior to the early 2000s, at which point they generally became increasingly unnaffordable each year. Nonetheless, condos in all regions represent most of Maui's affordable home sales.

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Extremely few single family homes in West Maui and Central Maui have sold for affordable prices since the early 2000s. And for all regions of Maui, many fewer homes sell for affordable prices since that time period compared to earlier years.

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Fewer condos have been selling for affordable prices since the mid-2000s. Yet, there remain many more affordable condo sales every year than single family home sales.

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Home Sale Prices

Across Maui County, single family homes sale prices are at all time highs in recent years, eclipsing the inflated prices of the subprime mortgage bubble of the early 2000s. Compared to 20 years ago, home prices are about twice as expensive in inflation-adjusted dollars. Condo prices are also at all time highs, but have not risen nearly as much.

Single family home sale prices are up 3-5x (inflation-adjusted) over the past 40 years. Sale prices in West Maui and South Maui are much higher since 2020.

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Condo sale prices are up 2-3x (inflation-adjusted) over the past 40 years, much slower growth than single family home prices on Maui.

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Household Incomes

Adjusting for inflation, median household income in different areas of Maui County has remained relatively unchanged since 1984, varying between $80k - $120k per year. This roughly constant household income is in stark contrast to the rapid and steady rise in housing costs across Maui County.

Household incomes (inflation-adjusted) have typically ranged from $80k-$110k per year for the past 40 years. Central Maui households have earned more since 2015.

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